Reuters Business News reports that Goldman Sacs analysts are projecting 30 year mortgage interests rates at 5.5% in 2019 compared with 4.0% today. The projection is based in part on speculation that the Trump administration will push for mortgage reforms possibly including the phase out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Such a fundamental change could likely shift mortgage default risk to private guarantors with the associated costs being priced into mortgage rates rather than being absorbed by the federal government. While far from certain the analysis supports the idea that we have seen the low point in near term mortgage interest rates and that any movement will most likely be upward.
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